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This year’s Emmy BuzzMeter balloting is complete, and our panel of six television experts is here to help you sift through who will and could win in four crowded races for supporting actor and actress.
More predictions: Drama actor | drama actress | comedy actor | comedy actress
Drama supporting actress
Perhaps influenced by “The White Lotus’” domination in the nominations for this category (four out of seven slots), the panel puts Carrie Coon on top spot, with Parker Posey close behind.
Kristen Baldwin, still salty that Coon hasn’t won for any of her previous work, said the actress “will finally get her due for ‘The White Lotus,’ courtesy of one epic monologue.”
Trey Mangum, though, sees a path for his pick: “My heart says that ‘The Pitt’ star Katherine LaNasa, with renewed attention post-nomination, can pull the upset.”
“If I had a vote, I’d give it to LaNasa as ‘The Pitt’s’ Mother Earth charge nurse, the show’s heart and soul. But I don’t. So I defer to the casting juggernaut of ‘The White Lotus,’” says Matt Roush.
Glenn Whipp says, “I think this comes down to Carrie Coon or Parker Posey, with Coon having the slight edge for the more serious role.”
1. Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”
2. Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”
3. Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”
4. Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
5. Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
6. Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
7. Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”
Los Angeles Times
Lorraine Ali
T1. Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”
T1. Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”
3. Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”
T4. Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
T4. Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
T4. Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
7. Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”
“Half the contenders here are from ‘The White Lotus,’ so they may cancel each other out. Arquette has two Emmys under her belt, so voters may pass on her. Nicholson hails from a series lesser-seen. So… congrats to Katherine LaNasa of ‘The Pitt’?”
Entertainment Weekly
Kristen Baldwin
1. Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”
2. Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”
3. Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”
4. Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
5. Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
6. Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
7. Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”
“She should have been nominated for ‘The Leftovers.’ She should have won for ‘Fargo’ and ‘The Gilded Age.’ Now, Coon will finally get her due for ‘The White Lotus,’ courtesy of one epic monologue.”
Los Angeles Times
Tracy Brown
1. Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”
2. Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”
3. Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”
4. Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
5. Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
6. Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
7. Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”
“Will all of ‘The White Lotus’ nominees end up splitting the vote, or will the voters rally behind Coon? I’m giving the edge instead to LaNasa, who played ‘The Pitt’s’ resilient charge nurse and is somehow the show’s only nominee in the supporting categories.”
Shadow and Act
Trey Mangum
1. Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”
2. Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”
3. Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”
4. Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”
5. Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
6. Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
7. Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
“I think the ‘White Lotus’ ladies, namely Parker Posey and Carrie Coon, have the most buzz, but my heart says that ‘The Pitt’ star Katherine LaNasa, with renewed attention post-nomination, can pull the upset.”
TV Guide
Matt Roush
1. Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”
2. Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”
3. Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”
4. Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
5. Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
6. Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
7. Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”
“If I had a vote, I’d give it to LaNasa as ‘The Pitt’s’ Mother Earth charge nurse, the show’s heart and soul. But I don’t. So I defer to the casting juggernaut of ‘The White Lotus,’ with Coon’s layered performance edging out Posey’s delicious Southern caricature.”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus”
2. Parker Posey, “The White Lotus”
3. Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt”
4. Natasha Rothwell, “The White Lotus”
5. Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise”
6. Aimee Lou Wood, “The White Lotus”
7. Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
“You might think the four women from ‘The White Lotus’ would split the votes, allowing an outsider (the deserving Katherine LaNasa?) to win. But I think this comes down to Carrie Coon or Parker Posey, with Coon having the slight edge for the more serious role.”
Drama supporting actor
As expected, “Severance” and “The White Lotus” dominated this category, taking all but one of the nomination slots. And our panelists predict Walton Goggins will win over Tramell Tillman — by a hair.
“As thrilled as I would be to see Tramell Tillman get the win here,” says Tracy Brown, “Walton Goggins is long overdue for some Emmys recognition.”
Glenn Whipp writes, “Doesn’t Goggins already have an Emmy for playing that memorable scoundrel Boyd Crowder in ‘Justified’? He doesn’t? That makes the popular actor the pick here.”
Lorraine Ali says Tillman “is unparalleled as the terrifying middle manager, Mr. Milchick. But the academy has foolishly snubbed him before, and he’s up against castmates [Zach] Cherry and [John] Turturro.”
Trey Mangum notes, “Tillman would make history if he secures the win here”; as Kristen Baldwin says, he “would be the first Black winner in this category.”
1. Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
2. Tramell Tillman, “Severance”
3. John Turturro, “Severance”
4. Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”
5. Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”
6. James Marsden, “Paradise”
7. Zach Cherry, “Severance”
Los Angeles Times
Lorraine Ali
1. Tramell Tillman, “Severance”
T2. Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
T2. John Turturro, “Severance”
4. Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”
5. James Marsden, “Paradise”
6. Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”
7. Zach Cherry, “Severance”
“Tillman is unparalleled as the terrifying middle manager, Mr. Milchick. But the academy has foolishly snubbed him before, and he’s up against castmates Cherry and Turturro. If voters lean toward ‘The White Lotus’? My bet is on Rockwell. (Disclaimer: No money was wagered during the making of this post.)”
Entertainment Weekly
Kristen Baldwin
1. Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
2. Tramell Tillman, “Severance”
3. Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”
4. John Turturro, “Severance”
5. Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”
6. James Marsden, “Paradise”
7. Zach Cherry, “Severance”
“Huzzah for James Marsden! But this one comes down to Goggins (long overdue for an Emmy win) and Tillman (who would be the first Black winner in this category). I’m gonna go Goggins, because of ‘Lotus’’ domination in the supporting categories — but at this point, it’d would be foolish to count Mr. Milchick out completely.”
Los Angeles Times
Tracy Brown
1. Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
2. Tramell Tillman, “Severance”
3. John Turturro, “Severance”
4. Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”
5. Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”
6. James Marsden, “Paradise”
7. Zach Cherry, “Severance”
“This category is another showdown between two of the year’s biggest drama series. But as thrilled as I would be to see Tillman get the win here, Goggins is long overdue for some Emmys recognition for his buzzy performance as Rick.”
Shadow and Act
Trey Mangum
1. Tramell Tillman, “Severance”
2. John Turturro, “Severance”
3. Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
4. Zach Cherry, “Severance”
5. James Marsden, “Paradise”
6. Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”
7. Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”
“Tillman would make history if he secures the win here. It may be a challenge to hold off the men of ‘The White Lotus’ (Goggins specifically), but Tillman is the ‘Severance’ performance of the year.”
TV Guide
Matt Roush
1. Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
2. John Turturro, “Severance”
3. Tramell Tillman, “Severance”
4. Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”
5. James Marsden, “Paradise”
6. Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”
7. Zach Cherry, “Severance”
“‘The White Lotus’ could deliver beloved character-actor extraordinaire Walton Goggins, as the season’s most tormented character, his first Emmy after multiple nominations. Possible spoilers, if ‘Severance’ goes on a roll: heartbreaker John Turturro or his fascinatingly enigmatic co-star Tramell Tillman.”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus”
2. Tramell Tillman, “Severance”
3. John Turturro, “Severance”
4. Jason Isaacs, “The White Lotus”
5. James Marsden, “Paradise”
6. Sam Rockwell, “The White Lotus”
7. Zach Cherry, “Severance”
“Doesn’t Goggins already have an Emmy for playing that memorable scoundrel Boyd Crowder in ‘Justified’? He doesn’t? That makes the popular actor the pick here, particularly with a bump from cult favorite ‘The Righteous Gemstones,’ which recently ended its run.”
Comedy supporting actress
Hannah Einbinder has led this race from the start and is nearly a consensus No. 1 according to the panel.
As Tracy Brown says, it seems to be her time: “After four nominations, I think it’s finally Hannah Einbinder’s year to be recognized for her work on ‘Hacks.’”
Trey Mangum says, “This is one of Janelle James’ best seasons of ‘Abbott Elementary.’ The only thing is, this is probably Einbinder’s best season of ‘Hacks.’ ”
Lorraine Ali says both Einbinder and James “turned their characters’ self-immolating career choices into highly entertaining satire.”
But Glenn Whipp sees a possible spoiler from another corner: “Don’t discount Catherine O’Hara, so great as the put-upon producer (and Amy Pascal stand-in) on ‘The Studio.’”
1. Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
2. Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio”
3. Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
4. Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
5. Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
6. Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”
7. Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
Los Angeles Times
Lorraine Ali
1. Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
2. Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
3. Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio”
4. Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
5. Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
6. Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”
7. Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
“Einbinder and James are overdue for Emmy recognition for depicting hilariously self-centered characters. As a bitter comedy writer and jaded elementary school principal, respectively, they turned their characters’ self-immolating career choices into highly entertaining satire.”
Entertainment Weekly
Kristen Baldwin
1. Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
2. Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
3. Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
4. Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio”
5. Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
6. Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”
7. Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
“Both Einbinder and James (four nominations each) are overdue for a win here. Now that the equally deserving Colón-Zayas has a win under her belt, it’s probably Einbinder’s time — though given ‘The Studio’s’ momentum, O’Hara could be a spoiler.”
Los Angeles Times
Tracy Brown
1. Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
2. Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio”
3. Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
4. Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”
5. Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
6. Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
7. Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
“O’Hara and Hahn are both well loved and top notch in ‘The Studio,’ so I wouldn’t be surprised if either of them take the prize. But after four nominations, I think it’s finally Einbinder’s year to be recognized for her work on ‘Hacks.’”
Shadow and Act
Trey Mangum
1. Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
2. Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
3. Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio”
4. Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
5. Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
6. Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
7. Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”
“This is one of James’ best seasons of ‘Abbott Elementary.’ The only thing is, this is probably Einbinder’s best season of ‘Hacks.’ As for everyone else, my pick for the sleeper is O’Hara for ‘The Studio.’”
TV Guide
Matt Roush
1. Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
2. Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
3. Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio”
4. Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
5. Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
6. Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
7. Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”
“While I’m disappointed the late Linda Lavin wasn’t acknowledged for her final role on ‘Mid-Century Modern,’ I’ll get over it if Einbinder finally wins as ‘Hacks’’ long-suffering comedy writer/producer. ‘The Bear’s’ Liza Colón-Zayas starred in last season’s finest episode, but many think that’s what got her last year’s award.”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio”
2. Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
3. Liza Colón-Zayas, “The Bear”
4. Kathryn Hahn, “The Studio”
5. Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
6. Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
7. Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
“If you were to go by screen time, you’d give this to Einbinder, co-lead of ‘Hacks’ and erstwhile sparring partner to Jean Smart. It could finally be her year, but don’t discount O’Hara, so great as the put-upon producer (and Amy Pascal stand-in) on ‘The Studio.’”
Comedy supporting actor
This has been one of the most volatile categories this season. Among the nominees, previous winner Ebon Moss-Bachrach and veteran comic performer Ike Barinholtz are top contenders, but they are forced to the backseat in Round 3 by a young upstart named Harrison Ford.
Meanwhile, Jeff Hiller of “Somebody Somewhere” — a surprise nominee even to himself — has fervent support: “If you have not watched Hiller alongside Bridget Everett in HBO’s ‘Somebody Somewhere’ yet, you must do that immediately,” insists Lorraine Ali. Kristen Baldwin says, “I’m holding out hope that Hiller — poignant, funny perfection on ‘Somebody Somewhere’ — pulls out the upset of the year for the show’s final season.”
1. Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
2. Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”
3. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
4. Michael Urie, “Shrinking”
5. Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
6. Jeff Hiller, “Somebody Somewhere”
7. Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”
Los Angeles Times
Lorraine Ali
1. Jeff Hiller, “Somebody Somewhere”
2. Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”
3. Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
4. Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
5. Michael Urie, “Shrinking”
6. Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”
7. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
“If you have not watched Hiller alongside Bridget Everett in HBO’s ‘Somebody Somewhere’ yet, you must do that immediately. Hiller, along with an eclectic cast of characters, beautifully conveys the ups and downs of the everyday in a small American town. Everyone needs a bestie like Hiller’s character, Joel.”
Entertainment Weekly
Kristen Baldwin
1. Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
2. Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”
3. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
4. Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
5. Michael Urie, “Shrinking”
6. Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”
7. Jeff Hiller, “Somebody Somewhere”
“It’s hard to argue with Ford, whose comedic curmudgeon skills are impeccable, being the frontrunner here. But I’m holding out hope that Hiller — poignant, funny perfection on ‘Somebody Somewhere’ — pulls out the upset of the year for the show’s final season.”
Los Angeles Times
Tracy Brown
1. Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
2. Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”
3. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
4. Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
5. Michael Urie, “Shrinking”
6. Jeff Hiller, “Somebody Somewhere”
7. Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”
“This is another race that comes down to whether Emmy voters go all in on ‘The Studio’ or decide to spread out the love. But I just can’t imagine them not giving Ford his first-ever Emmy for his performance as the gruff senior therapist on ‘Shrinking.’”
Shadow and Act
Trey Mangum
1. Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
2. Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”
3. Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”
4. Michael Urie, “Shrinking”
5. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
6. Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
7. Jeff Hiller, “Somebody Somewhere”
“Barinholtz for ‘The Studio’ is the choice that makes the most sense, but Ford securing a nom makes him a super-strong contender. Still, never count Domingo out in any awards race.”
TV Guide
Matt Roush
1. Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”
2. Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
3. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
4. Michael Urie, “Shrinking”
5. Jeff Hiller, “Somebody Somewhere”
6. Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
7. Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”
“I’m torn between the career-high work of Barinholtz on ‘The Studio’ and living legend Ford finally getting his first-ever Emmy nod as ‘Shrinking’s’ resident lovable curmudgeon. If he and Bates both win this year, what a triumph it will be for Hollywood veterans.”
Los Angeles Times
Glenn Whipp
1. Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
2. Ike Barinholtz, “The Studio”
3. Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
4. Michael Urie, “Shrinking”
5. Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
6. Jeff Hiller, “Somebody Somewhere”
7. Colman Domingo, “The Four Seasons”
“Ford earned his first Emmy nomination for his terrific work on ‘Shrinking,’ playing a therapist dealing with Parkinson’s. Ford is 83, and I think voters won’t be able to resist giving him an Emmy. If not now, when?”
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